The trade-offs between income, leisure, and childbearing: Experimental Evidence from Multiple Countries

AASSVE, A., ADSERA, A., MENCARINI, L., PENG, C., ROMÁN, A., STRANGES, M.

Abstract

Fertility decisions involve complex trade-offs between financial stability, time allocation, and family aspirations, yet the relative importance of these domains remains poorly understood. This study uses a seven-country factorial survey experiment among adults aged 20 to 49 to quantify how individuals value income and leisure when evaluating childbearing choices. Respondents assess hypothetical couples deciding whether to have a first or second child, with profiles varying by household income, the woman’s income share, expected post-birth changes in financial circumstances and free time, and maternal age. The experimental design identifies the marginal effect of each attribute on respondents’ fertility preferences and how these effects differ by country and gender. We test whether perceptions of the motherhood penalty influence fertility trade-offs, whether income considerations weigh differently for first versus second births, and how preferences evolve with the woman’s age. By linking experimentally revealed preferences to cross-national variation in gender norms and welfare regimes, the study clarifies which constraints most strongly shape reproductive choices. The findings inform debates on income support, work–family policies, and the design of interventions aimed at mitigating time and income barriers to parenthood.

ALONSO ROMÁN AMARALES