ROMÁN, A., AASSVE, A., MENCARINI, L.
Fertility decline has been widely examined through economic and gender-based frameworks, yet its political dimension remains largely unexplored. This study investigates how political ideology shapes fertility intentions when individuals face macro-level uncertainty. While previous research links conservatism to stronger fertility intentions, less is known about how political orientations influence reproductive decision-making under conditions of collective risk such as climate change, economic crisis, democratic instability, or international conflict.
Using original survey and conjoint data from Italy, Argentina, Germany, and the United States, we analyze how political ideology conditions both stated and experimentally revealed fertility preferences across diverse uncertain contexts. Across all four countries, the results indicate that left-leaning individuals are more sensitive to macro-level uncertainty, particularly regarding climate change and democratic erosion, whereas right-leaning respondents are more reactive to economic risks.
By integrating political ideology into the study of fertility, this paper bridges political behavior and demographic research. It shows that reproductive choices are not only shaped by material or family-level conditions, but also by how citizens interpret uncertainty and envision the future, offering a new perspective on the political foundations of demographic change.