Fertility Intentions in Uncertain Times: The Effect of Climate Change, Economic Crises, Political Polarization, and Regional Conflicts in Italy, Argentina, the USA, and Germany

Aassve, A., Mencarini, L., Peng, C., Plach, S., Román Amarales, A., Tanturri, M.

Abstract

Fertility rates are declining across much of the globe, but the causes of this decline are increasingly complex. While economic and gender-related explanations have long dominated fertility research, emerging global uncertainties—such as climate change, democratic backsliding, economic crises, and regional conflicts—may also shape reproductive decision-making. This cross-national study examines how macro-level uncertainties influence fertility intentions in Italy, Argentina, the United States, and Germany. These countries offer distinct fertility trajectories and face unique combinations of socio-political and environmental challenges. Building on theories of the "risk society" and "liquid modernity," the study combines survey data with a factorial experiment to assess how both stated concerns and revealed preferences inform reproductive choices. By comparing the relative weight of economic, environmental, and political uncertainties alongside family-level factors, this study contributes to a broader understanding of how individuals navigate fertility decisions in an increasingly unstable world.